Sunday’s Oscar showdown between Cameron’s “Avatar” and Bigelow’s “The Hurt Locker” will highlight Hollywood’s split personality on the industry’s biggest night of the year. Those movies are the co-favorites for best picture, while Cameron and Bigelow are the front-runners for best director.
 

“Avatar,” a futuristic 3-D tale featuring groundbreaking computer effects, cost almost $300 million to make and has grossed $2.5 billion. “The Hurt Locker,” a documentary-style drama about US soldiers defusing homemade bombs, cost $15 million and has made $19.3 million at the box office -- a quarter of what “Avatar” grossed on its opening weekend in North America.
With no money-back guarantees, here are my Oscar picks:
Best Picture
Nominees: “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire,” “A Serious Man,” “Up,” “Up in the Air.”
Skinny: Although they doubled the field to 10 this year, it’s a two-movie race. Blockbusters like “Avatar” rarely win, though Cameron previously pulled it off with “Titanic.” “The Hurt Locker” has won most of the critics’ awards and is the kind of serious drama that Oscar voters usually favor. Also, Cameron isn’t the most popular guy in Hollywood. I’ll take Bigelow in a photo finish.
Should Win: “Precious.”
Will Win: “The Hurt Locker.”
Best Actor
Nominees: Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), George Clooney (“Up in the Air”), Colin Firth (“A Single Man”), Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”), Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”).
Skinny: Bridges has swept most of the pre-Oscar awards for his portrayal of a broken-down country singer. Clooney, nominated for his role as a corporate hatchet man, is the only challenger with even an outside chance. In this economy, though, do we really want to celebrate a character who fires people for a living?
Should Win: Bridges.
Will Win: Bridges.
Best Actress
Nominees: Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”), Carey Mulligan (“An Education”), Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”), Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”).
Skinny: Bullock is favored to win for playing a perky white Southerner who helps a homeless black teenager become a college graduate and football star. Sidibe, Mulligan and Streep are all more deserving. It’s too bad that Sidibe’s amazing screen debut as a pregnant, illiterate teen has been overshadowed by Mo’Nique’s equally powerful performance in the same film.
Should Win: Sidibe.
Will Win: Bullock.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Matt Damon (“Invictus”), Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”), Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”), Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”).
Skinny: While his role as a ruthless, debonair Nazi colonel is relatively small, Waltz makes you forget that Brad Pitt is the headliner in Quentin Tarantino’s World War II revenge fantasy. I also loved Harrelson’s little-seen performance as a soldier who notifies families that their loved ones are dead.
Should Win: Waltz.
Will Win: Waltz.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (“Nine”), Vera Farmiga (“Up in the Air”), Maggie Gyllenhaal (“Crazy Heart”), Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”).
Skinny: This one’s no contest. If Mo’Nique doesn’t win for her searing portrayal of an abusive mother, somebody should demand a recount.
Should Win: Mo’Nique.
Will Win: Mo’Nique.
Best Director
Nominees: Cameron (“Avatar”), Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”), Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”), Lee Daniels (“Precious”), Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”).
Skinny: Best picture and best director usually go hand in hand, but this year may be an exception. Some handicappers are predicting a split vote, with the directing award going to the loser of the best-picture contest between “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker.” I don’t think so. Cameron will end up toasting his former wife.
Should Win: Bigelow.
Will Win: Bigelow.